- all
- Regulatory strategy and litigation support
- Large energy user services
- Energy markets and financial analysis
- Energy and environmental policy
- Cost of service and rate design
- Distributed energy resources
- Transmission planning and pricing
- Resource planning and procurement
Storage Adoption Strategy | Glendale Water and Power Solar, 2024
After the Glendale City Council passed a city-wide goal of achieving 10% adoption of customer solar and storage technologies by 2027 and additional 100 MW peak dispatchable and peak load-reducing capacity, Glendale Water and Power (GWP), the municipal utility, enlisted E3 to help it devise a strategy to reach that goal equitably and cost-effectively. E3 employed the IDSM tool to assess the predicted adoption of distributed solar and storage according to several different scenarios with varying utility incentives and rate designs. The scenarios were evaluated not only on whether they reached the 10% target but also on their ability to attribute the benefits of DERs equitably among more than a dozen different customer segments. System-wide impacts on emissions, ratepayer impacts, and utility avoided costs were calculated with the outputs of the IDSM tool.
The balance between affordability and adoption impact is a careful consideration when selecting program portfolios to ensure equitable growth. IDSM modeling results enable the E3 team to reveal the feasibility of achieving the 10% adoption target through a strategic combination of robust community outreach, utility incentives, and a rate design that encourages adoption while also mitigating ratepayer impacts.
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Hawaiʻi Pathways to Decarbonization | Hawaiʻi State Energy Office, 2023
E3 supported the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office in the development of a report to the State Legislature evaluating long-term pathways to economywide decarbonization in Hawaiʻi and recommending new policies to ensure the achievement of the state’s decarbonization goals. E3 supported the Hawaiʻi State Energy Office in this effort by developing long-term decarbonization scenarios using the PATHWAYS model to explore the tradeoffs between different pathways to achieving Hawaiʻi’s goals.
The report affirms and recommends maintaining the state’s economy-wide emissions reduction target of 50% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. The analysis shows that while challenging to achieve, with high levels of energy efficiency and conservation, renewable energy, and natural carbon sinks, among other measures, this ambitious goal is within reach.
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Energy Storage Market Update and Long Duration Storage Study | Massachusetts Clean Energy Center, 2023
In collaboration with the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC) and Department of Energy Resources (DOER), E3 conducted a study that assesses the current state of energy storage in the Commonwealth, the market outlook for emerging mid- and long-duration storage (LDES) technologies, and potential applications of mid- and long-duration storage, all in the context of providing benefits to ratepayers and achieving the state’s ambitious decarbonization goals.
The study included several modeling and stakeholder engagement elements. Leveraging E3’s pro forma financial model of storage technology costs and a custom-built storage dispatch model, the project team analyzed several storage use cases to help the state understand impacts of current incentive programs. Assessment of future storage value involved loss-of-load probability modeling of the entire ISO-NE footprint using E3’s RECAP model. E3 engaged stakeholders throughout the study process through interviews with more than 50 key stakeholders and two public stakeholder workshops. In the study, E3 shows that the role of energy storage changes to suit grid needs, but that storage requires well-designed state support to encourage deployment and innovation that targets these needs. In addition to writing a report providing study findings, the team worked with DOER to translate findings into policy recommendations for the state.
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Impact of Massachusetts’s Decarbonization Goals | Massachusetts Local Gas Distribution Companies, 2021-2023
E3 provided analysis in support of the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) December 2023 Order in the 20-80 “Future of gas” proceeding, which sets a new regulatory framework for the future of natural gas distribution in support of the Commonwealth’s climate goals. The DPU recommended the E3 team’s analysis in support of the 20-80 proceeding, writing:
“The Department commends the LDCs and their Consultants for their comprehensive effort in estimating the costs and economy-wide GHG emissions reductions involved in transitioning the natural gas system. The Department fully recognizes the difficulty in assessing these multidimensional challenges and expresses its appreciation for the comprehensive Pathways Report.”
E3 developed and analyzed eight decarbonization pathways and six regulatory design recommendations as part of a multi-year engagement examining the role of local gas distribution companies (LDCs) in Massachusetts in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Commonwealth by 2050. In addition to the Decarbonization Pathways Study, which was developed as part of the Commonwealth’s 20-80 proceeding, E3 assisted each of the LDCs in their filing of a Net Zero Enablement Plan that included LDC-specific recommendations and plans to support the Commonwealth’s decarbonization goals. This project also involved a broad modeling framework designed by E3 as well as an extensive stakeholder process aimed at gauging stakeholder perspectives on gas decarbonization.
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Scenario Analysis to Support the 2023 Annual Report | United States Climate Alliance, 2023
E3 provided scenario analysis to support the US Climate Alliance’s 2023 Annual Report which highlighted the progress Alliance members have already made toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and using E3’s modeling, detailed multiple scenarios of Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050. E3 evaluated Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050 using E3’s PATHWAYS model to map out the trajectory of current policies including the Inflation Reduction Act, proposed federal actions, and additional ambitious collective actions for Alliance states or the federal government. These scenarios highlighted the gap between current policies and GHG targets and quantified the impact of incremental measures and actions. E3 also evaluated the benefits and costs of achieving net zero GHG emissions, including health benefits, climate benefits, and direct costs of fuels and clean infrastructure, showcasing net savings through 2050 of decarbonization.
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New York City Long-Term Energy Plan | New York City Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice, 2022-2023
E3 led a team completing an inclusive, year-long study to identify the policies and programs needed to achieve the New York City’s decarbonization goals. E3’s analysis involved both examining policies and programs to meet the city’s long-term goals as well as providing specific recommendations for actions to be taken during the current administration. The study included eight research branches focused on the performance and cost of heat pumps in new buildings; the affordability of electrification retrofits in rent-regulated housing; the opportunities for electric school bus managed charging and vehicle-to-grid; the potential for in-city wind energy; a screening of public lands for new clean energy development; an assessment of the electric grid readiness for increasing heat pump and EV charging loads; and an evaluation of how bulk energy storage could reduce reliance on in-city fossil generation. Based on E3’s study, New York City published PowerUp NYC, the city’s first Long-Term Energy Plan, which includes 29 clean energy initiatives focused on the city’s energy grid, its buildings, and its transportation sector. Many aspects of the PowerUp NYC, from research topic selection to recommendations, were developed in collaboration with the public, and with the public’s interest at the forefront of the decision-making process. The recommendations of the LTEP are aligned with long-term energy and equity policy mandates from both the city and state and revolve around the needs of NYC residents.
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Diligence and Investment Advisory Services for NIPSCO Equity Acquisition | Blackstone, 2023
E3 was retained to be a key advisor to Blackstone as part of their diligence and investment process for Blackstone’s acquisition of a 19.9% non-controlling equity interest in NIPSCO (Northern Indiana Public Service Company) for $2.15 Billion, with additional equity commitment of $250 million to fund ongoing capital requirements. E3 applied a custom bespoke approach to NIPSCO’s unique operations and jurisdiction to advise Blackstone during the investment process.
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DER Roadmap Development | Tata Power-DDL, 2018-2022
With a United States Trade and Development Agency, E3 supported Tata Power-DDL as it explored the regulatory and business cases for a broader set of distributed energy resources including electric vehicles, demand response, storage, and energy efficiency in India. E3’s support began with analyzing Tata Power-DDL’s system to understand 1) the cost-effectiveness of DER technologies from different perspectives in the benefit-cost analysis framework, 2) the optimal DER portfolio that maximizes the benefits for the entire system, and 3) the pathway to realize the optimal portfolio through proper incentive structures or other mechanisms.
The project developed least-cost DER portfolios under low, medium, and high scenarios. These scenarios were crafted based on varying levels of load forecast, distribution deferral values, and technology costs. For each scenario, the project employed the IDSM tool to first assess the cost-effectiveness of various DER technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs), efficient air conditioners (ACs), efficient fans, solar panels, and Demand Response (DR) programs. The IDSM tool then simulated customer adoption decision-making processes and the final adoption level. Based on E3’s analysis, Tata Power-DDL decided to focus on a subset of DER programs and identified two DER pilots for the beginning of a distributed energy transition roadmap: EV charging centers and the DR Hotspot Program.
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Publications
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Advanced Metering Infrastructure Filing Support | National Grid, 2018 – 2022
E3 supported to National Grid, beginning in 2018, with developing and progressing their Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and Grid Modernization Plan (GMP) filings in New York, Rhode Island, and most recently in Massachusetts. In addition to developing both a detailed business case and benefit-cost analysis for the meter installations, E3 worked with National Grid’s AMI team to engage internal stakeholders in the development of the filings. and to coordinate filing approaches with Eversource Energy’s Massachusetts team. E3 also worked with National Grid to align the proposed Massachusetts AMI implementation timeline with National Grid’s approved New York AMI implementation plan to maximize the cost savings of codeployment. National Grid’s final AMI proposal was approved by the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities in December 2022.
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New York Electricity Grid Emission Factors | NYSERDA, 2020-22
E3 supported NYSERDA in developing a new methodology for calculating greenhouse gas emission factors for New York’s electricity grid. Greenhouse gas emission factors measure the emissions intensity of grid power (the amount of emissions produced per unit of energy generated, such as in metric tons per megawatt-hour). E3 calculated future marginal grid emission factors for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) for New York State for 2023 through 2040, on a month-hour and annual basis. E3 worked together with NYSERDA to write a white paper describing the methodology, results, and recommended applications of the new emission factors, as well as an accompanying database of emission factors for use by stakeholders.
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New York Distributed Solar Roadmap | NYSERDA, 2021
Working with the New York Department of Public Service (DPS) and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), E3 supported the development of a new roadmap for New York to achieve the installation of at least 10 Gigawatts of distributed solar by 2030. The roadmap lays out a path that will expand renewable energy in New York, generating enough clean energy to power 700,000 additional homes, while also prioritizing an equitable expansion of New York’s distributed solar infrastructure. E3 contributed to the distributed solar framework by providing analysis that informed the plan’s policy recommendations. E3 developed a supply curve model for distributed solar projects in New York and used this model to evaluate program costs for different incentive program options. The analysis was used to inform the roadmap’s ultimate recommendation to extend the current NY-Sun Megawatt Block incentive program to help achieve the 10 GW target.
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Electrification of Transportation Rate Design and Infrastructure Applications | Hawaiian Electric Company, 2020-2021
E3 supported the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) on four transportation electrification filings. First, E3 and its subcontractors Anser Advisory and Black & Veatch designed a program for HECO to build the make-ready infrastructure for electric buses to support electrification of transportation for transit, tourism, and other bus operators. Second, E3 designed two new electric vehicle charging rates, EV-J and EV-P, for commercial electric vehicle charging sites. E3 developed a rate design calculator and performed cost-benefit assessments to evaluate different rate designs and propose final rates that will support low-cost public EV charging in Hawaii. Third, E3 and its subcontractor Anser Advisory supported HECO in developing its Charge Ready Hawaii pilot program to deploy make-ready charging infrastructure for commercial and multi-unit dwelling locations. Finally, E3 and its subcontractors Anser Advisory and Atlas Public Policy supported HECO in developing a proposal to expand its public DC fast charging (DCFC) infrastructure pilot to build out 150 DCFC ports and 150 dual-port Level 2 charging stations across its service territory. These programs – three of which have been approved by the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission with the fourth project (DCFC program expansion) under review in 2022 – build on HECO’s Electrification of Transportation Roadmap and allow for HECO to support its customers in electrifying their vehicles and fleets.
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WRI United States Decarbonization Scenarios | World Resources Institute, 2021
E3 worked with the World Resources Institute (WRI) to develop four scenarios of increasing ambition to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors of the United States economy using E3’s US PATHWAYS and RESOLVE models. E3 collaborated with WRI to develop robust scenario definitions, collect publicly available data and assumptions, and create interactive spreadsheet results. The goal of the study was to understand the effect of high-impact federal policies on achieving 50% emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The analysis demonstrates the importance of key near-term building blocks, including: 1) aligning economics for customers and companies to adopt clean energy technologies; 2) aligning policy and institutions to remove barriers to technology deployment; 3) increasing consumer awareness and education to unlock higher levels of adoption; and 4) creating a transition plan for fossil fuel jobs to ensure a smooth transition.
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US Climate Alliance Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios to Net Zero | US Climate Alliance, 2021
E3 provided modeling and scenario analysis to support the US Climate Alliance’s 2021 Annual Report. The report highlights the progress Alliance members have already made toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and using E3’s modeling, details multiple scenarios of Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050. E3 evaluated Alliance-wide GHG emissions through 2050 using E3’s PATHWAYS and RESOLVE models. The GHG emissions scenarios E3 developed for the Alliance highlighted the gap between the GHG reductions that would be possible with proposed state and federal policies and the reductions necessary to meet established federal targets. E3 also modeled the emissions impacts of the collective actions that would help bridge that gap.
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New York Integration Analysis for Climate Action Council Draft Scoping Plan | NYSERDA, 2021 – ongoing
E3 is supporting NYSERDA in its analysis to inform the Climate Action Council’s Scoping Plan. E3 has developed scenarios showing how New York could achieve carbon neutrality as outlined in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). This work includes a detailed analysis of buildings, transportation, industry, electricity generation, non-combustion, low-carbon fuels, and negative emissions using E3’s suite of modeling tools (PATHWAYS, RESOLVE, and RECAP) and parallel modeling efforts at NYSERDA. E3 also assessed the economy-wide cost of decarbonization and compared it to the societal benefits of reduced greenhouse gas emissions and monetized benefits of improved air quality through reduced combustion. E3’s work includes detailed modeling of the CLCPA electric sector targets, including the 70×30 and 100×40 goals as well as technology-specific targets such as the 9 GW offshore wind target.
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Integrated Resource Plan | California Public Utilities Commission, 2023
E3 has provided comprehensive technical and advisory support to the Energy Division of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in its administration of the state’s IRP program, mandated by the passage of SB 350 in 2016. E3 worked with CPUC staff to develop the structure of the IRP program including a three-year modeling cycle in which Staff prepares a system-wide plan that informs the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)’s annual Transmission Planning Process (TPP) and informs Load-Serving Entities integrated resource plans in alternate years.
E3 has helped the CPUC design an optimal “Preferred System Plan” for the combined utilities that incorporates the resource procurement plans of the LSEs and complies with the state’s clean energy policy requirements. In the 2022-2023 cycle, the policy requirements considered include a 60% RPS by 2030 and SB 100 by 2045, and a statewide greenhouse gas emissions target of 25 million metric tons (MMT) by 2035, while capturing the operational and reliability challenges encountered at high penetrations of variable renewable generation. As part of this process, E3 evaluated dozens of scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions about load forecasts and electrification, resource costs, the availability of offshore wind and out-of-state wind, the ability of end-use loads to operate flexibly, and a variety of other input parameters.
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Integrated Resource Plan | California Public Utilities Commission, 2021
E3 has provided comprehensive technical and advisory support to the Energy Division of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in its administration of the state’s IRP program, mandated by the passage of SB 350 in 2016. E3 worked with CPUC staff to develop the structure of the IRP program including a three-year modeling cycle in which Staff prepares a system-wide plan that informs the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)’s annual Transmission Planning Process (TPP) and informs Load-Serving Entities integrated resource plans in alternate years.
E3 has helped the CPUC design an optimal “Preferred System Plan” for the combined utilities that incorporates the resource procurement plans of the LSEs and complies with the state’s clean energy policy requirements. In the 2020-2021 cycle, the policy requirements considered include a 60% RPS by 2030 and SB 100 by 2045, and a statewide greenhouse gas emissions target of 38 million metric tons (MMT) by 2030, while capturing the operational and reliability challenges encountered at high penetrations of variable renewable generation. E3 also supported the Energy Division’s development of a mid-term reliability order requiring the procurement of 11.5 GW of effective capacity by 2026. As part of this process, E3 evaluated dozens of scenarios reflecting alternative assumptions about load forecasts and electrification, resource costs, the availability of offshore wind and out-of-state wind, the ability of end-use loads to operate flexibly, and a variety of other input parameters.
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Net Zero Carbon Pathways Study | Omaha Public Power District, 2021
To support the development of its 2021 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP), Omaha Public Power District (OPPD) engaged E3 to perform a comprehensive study on various pathways for OPPD to achieve net zero carbon by 2050. With a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, OPPD sought a study to understand different pathways to achieve their target emissions, reliability, costs, and generation. E3’s study consisted of three primary phases: multi-sector modeling using the E3 PATHWAYS model to develop multiple electricity sector demand forecasts; reliability and resiliency analysis using the E3 RECAP model; and portfolio optimization using the E3 RESOLVE model to develop cost-optimal electricity portfolios that achieved both net-zero carbon and target reliability by 2050. E3 found that OPPD can achieve net zero while balancing affordability and reliability and that all net zero pathways require a cessation of coal generation and reduced use of fossil generation. A mix of new low-carbon resources including renewable energy, energy storage, and community-wide energy efficiency will be required as well as firm capacity resources, which will be needed to maintain resource adequacy.
Publications
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Integrated Resource Plan Support | El Paso Electric, 2020-21
E3 provided a broad range of IRP support services for El Paso Electric (EPE) including developing resource options and data inputs, conducting a Planning Reserve Margin and ELCC study using RECAP, optimizing EPE’s portfolios over the 2021-2045 period reflecting New Mexico’s Renewables Portfolio Standard and Energy Transition Act as well as EPE’s own goal of 80% carbon reductions by 2035, studying the operability of EPE’s system under high levels of wind and solar generation, and developing regulatory strategies for cost allocation and procurement given EPE’s multi-state service area. E3 has also been heavily involved in EPE’s stakeholder outreach and communication strategy, leading multiple stakeholder workshops and contributing to a substantial improvement in EPE’s stakeholder relations.
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DER Adoption Study | Silicon Valley Clean Energy, 2019-2020
E3 assisted Silicon Valley Clean Energy (SVCE) in evaluating the adoption potential of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in residential and commercial buildings through a detailed sub-segment breakdown using E3’s IDSM tool. In addition to building electrification, the IDSM evaluation focused on various technologies, including rooftop solar, electric vehicles, and behind-the-meter (BTM) storage. The IDSM tool simulated adoption levels under different scenarios considering varying incentive levels, California building codes and standards, and utility electricity and natural gas retail rates. This analysis provided SVCE with insights into how different factors influence the adoption of DERs and helped identify the most effective strategies to encourage their uptake in both residential and commercial sectors.
Integrated Resource Plan Support | Xcel Energy Upper Midwest, 2019
As part of its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, Xcel Energy retained E3 to conduct two independent analyses to support its IRP: (1) an economy-wide study for the state of Minnesota examining what would be needed to meet deep decarbonization goals throughout the economy (e.g. 80% reductions by 2050); and (2) a portfolio optimization and reliability analysis for Xcel’s portfolio to examine the costs of meeting the utility’s carbon reduction goals (80% reductions by 2030; 100% carbon-free by 2050).
E3’s statewide pathways study provided Xcel with a novel perspective on future electricity loads in the context of an economy-wide carbon reduction effort, showing how decarbonization measures such as building and transportation electrification could lead to significant long-term increases in load. These findings were used to inform a sensitivity analysis conducted within Xcel’s internal IRP modeling.
E3’s portfolio and reliability analyses were conducted in parallel with Xcel’s internal work to develop a forward-looking resource plan, testing the notion that an independent expert using advanced industry-standard methods would come to similar conclusions. E3 used RECAP for sophisticated loss-of-load-probability analysis and RESOLVE for optimal capacity expansion to design reliable, least-cost portfolios to meet carbon reduction goals, ultimately corroborating the findings in Xcel’s plan.
Publications
- Minnesota Decarbonization Scenarios: The Role of the Electric Sector
- Xcel Energy Low Carbon Scenario Analysis: Decarbonizing the Generation Portfolio of Xcel Energy’s Upper Midwest System
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Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Study | Pacific Northwest Utilities, 2018-19
E3 was retained by a consortium of public and private utilities in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate regional resource adequacy under a resource mix that, for both economic and public policy reasons, is transitioning toward higher levels of renewable energy and storage and away from coal. The study used E3’s RECAP model to examine the reliability of different portfolios and reliability contributions of individual resources such as wind, solar, hydro, and energy storage. The study examined both near-term (2030) and long-term (2050) systems. The results found that the Northwest region needs new capacity in the near term to meet growing loads and compensate for planned coal retirements. In the long term, E3 found that deep decarbonization could be achieved if sufficient firm capacity was retained for reliability during times of low wind, solar, and hydro generation. While wind, solar, hydro, and battery storage could provide reliability benefits to the system, replacing all carbon-emitting firm resources with these alternatives was found to be impractical due to the large overbuild required. Study sponsors included the Public Generating Pool (PGP), a consortium of publicly owned utilities in Washington and Oregon; Avista Corporation; Puget Sound Energy; and Northwestern Energy.
Publications
- For a Smart Transition to 100% Clean Energy: Renewables, Storage and, in Some Cases, New Gas
- Resource Adequacy in the Pacific Northwest
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Long-Run Resource Adequacy Under Deep Decarbonization Pathways for California | Calpine, 2018-19
Building on E3’s prior work for the California Energy Commission, this study examines which resources will be needed to maintain resource adequacy in a future California electricity system that is deeply decarbonized and heavily dependent on renewable energy and electric energy storage to meet California’s economy-wide 2050 greenhouse gas reduction goal. Whereas E3’s previous work identified resources California should build to meet GHG and renewable energy targets, this study takes an in-depth look at electric system reliability requirements – and specifically which resources are needed to maintain acceptable long-run reliability in a cost-effective manner. After examining resource adequacy through loss-of-load-probability (LOLP) modeling across thousands of simulated years using its RECAP model, E3 found that achieving economy-wide goals does not require full decarbonization of the electricity sector and that the least-cost electricity portfolio to meet 2050 economy-wide goals includes very large quantities of solar + storage and retains 17 GW to 35 GW of firm natural gas capacity for reliability.
Publications
- For a Smart Transition to 100% Clean Energy: Renewables, Storage and, in Some Cases, New Gas
- Long-Run Resource Adequacy Under Deep Decarbonization Pathways for California
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Cost and Emissions Impacts of Residential Building Electrification in California | Three Utility Study, 2018-19
E3 was retained by three of California’s largest electric utilities – Southern California Edison (SCE), Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) – to explore the consumer costs and emissions reduction potential associated with the electrification of California homes. The study examines costs, savings, and emissions for electric and gas appliances in six different home types in geographical areas covering over half the state’s population. Unlike prior studies, it closely evaluates the consumer cost perspective on building electrification and quantifies GHG emissions savings by home type. E3 found that building electrification would deliver lifecycle cost savings for most home types in the study area. For homes with air conditioning – about 80 percent of the total – the economics are particularly strong: all new construction homes and the vast majority (84 percent) of existing single-family homes with A/C would save by going all-electric. E3 also found that electrification would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from homes – starting today. For example, a Sacramento home built in the 1990s would immediately cut its GHG emissions nearly in half by switching to all-electric appliances; by 2050, with a significantly cleaner electric grid, the GHG savings would grow to over 80 percent (and more, if California achieves carbon neutrality).
Publications
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EV Program Regulatory Support | AEP Ohio, 2017
To support AEP Ohio’s program application to the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO), in which the company sought to install 1300 electric vehicle charging stations over four years, E3 performed a cost-benefit analysis of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption in the company’s service territory. To do this, E3 developed a statewide PEV adoption forecast and estimated costs of PEVs and charging stations as well as the electric grid costs of serving PEV charging loads. E3 also quantified the benefits of PEV adoption, which primarily result from reduced gasoline and vehicle maintenance costs. E3’s analysis — which found net benefits of $1,600 per vehicle in Ohio, and utility ratepayer benefits of $1,470 per vehicle — provided credible, independent support for AEP Ohio witness testimony.
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Regional EV Impact Analysis | Pacific Northwest Six-Utility Study, 2015-17
After analyzing the costs and benefits of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) for Seattle City Light (SCL), E3 worked with SCL and five additional utilities to complete a Northwest regional analysis covering Washington and Oregon that assessed costs, benefits, opportunities and challenges for the region as a whole and for each utility. E3 investigated the value of PEV adoption from ratepayer and societal perspectives, quantified forecasted load impacts and greenhouse gas emissions, and assessed the value of managed charging in each utility’s service territory, modeling light-duty vehicles as well as taxis and car share vehicles, parcel trucks, buses, and forklifts. Overall, the study found that the region would benefit from transportation electrification through lower overall spending on energy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. E3’s final report, completed in March 2017, contained extensive documentation for each utility.
Rate Structures for Electrified Transit | California Transit Association, 2018
E3 utilized its deep rate design experience and robust vehicle electrification modeling capabilities to help the California Transit Association (CTA) develop electricity rate structures to promote widespread transit electrification. E3 worked with CTA member agencies to develop key data sets for charging profiles and candidate rate designs. This involved gathering extensive data to create accurate charging profiles for public buses, which differ in terms of charging locations (on route vs. at depot), charging times, and route lengths. E3’s modeling also incorporated forecasted changes in charging technologies as well as current and future bus technology configurations. E3 then developed a wide range of potential rate structures with various time-of-use energy charges and demand charge structures and levels, each of which was designed to be revenue-neutral so that any design could be implemented as an option for the relevant customer class. This project quantified the importance of rate structure selection in delivering value for both “smart” and un-managed charging and informed the ongoing discussion among utilities, regulators, and transit agencies. CTA represents more than 200 member organizations, including all of California’s largest urban transit operators and dozens of agencies in suburban and rural areas.
Electrification of Transportation (EoT) Strategic Roadmap | Hawaiian Electric Companies, 2017-18
E3 provided the Hawaiian Electric Companies significant support in developing an industry-leading “Electrification of Transportation Strategic Roadmap,” filed in 2018, which outlines key utility initiatives and partnerships designed to realize economic and environmental benefits associated with EVs. In formulating and drafting the Roadmap, E3 developed a rigorous, data-driven approach to identify high-impact utility actions to promote EV adoption, minimize costs and grid impacts, and capture maximum benefits for utility customers. The Roadmap quantifies the significant benefit that EVs are predicted to provide to ratepayers and the state’s economy between now and 2045: up to $1,800 and $2,700 per vehicle, respectively, if more vehicles charge during periods of solar abundance. EVs will also support Hawaii’s ambitious goal of 100% renewable energy by 2045, provide significant CO2 reductions and local air quality benefits, and substantially reduce reliance on imported oil. Near-term priorities include: 1) customer outreach and education; 2) partnering with third parties to build critical charging infrastructure; 3) supporting customers’ transition to electric buses; 4) aligning EV charging with grid needs; and 5) coordinating with ongoing grid modernization efforts.
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Pacific Northwest Pathways to 2050 | NW Natural, 2018
E3 analyzed regional 2050 decarbonization scenarios for the Pacific Northwest on behalf of NW Natural, a gas distribution business in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Unlike prior studies, E3’s focused on space heating technologies: both how they perform in cold temperatures and affect the costs of serving heating loads. E3 analyzed four scenarios — two maintaining direct use of gas in buildings, and two assuming large-scale building electrification — and found similar 2050 costs among the gas and cold-climate electric heat pump scenarios, and higher costs in the standard electric heat pump scenario. Gas scenarios require three things beyond the decarbonization strategies common to all scenarios: reducing the carbon intensity of natural gas by blending up to 30 percent carbon-neutral renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen; high building energy efficiency; and deeper GHG reductions in non-building sector emissions. Electrification scenarios require rapid consumer adoption of electric heating technologies, especially cold-climate heat pumps, and significant electricity sector investments to address winter peak demand from electric space heating.
Publications
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Maryland Decarbonization Pathways | Maryland Dept. of Environment, 2017–2019
E3 supported the development of Maryland’s statewide climate plan in collaboration with the Regional Economic Studies Institute (RESI) at Towson University. E3 developed a Maryland-specific PATHWAYS model for the project to calculate the costs and emissions reduction potential of various measures across the state’s economy, as well as the timeframes in which they would occur. In the project’s first phase, E3 developed a reference emissions case under existing state energy policies that was presented to the Mitigation Working Group of the Maryland Commission on Climate Change; in the second phase, E3 evaluated deeper GHG reduction scenarios with additional and more aggressive measures. The state’s draft climate plan, released by the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) in October 2019, encompassed more than 100 climate-saving measures – including investments in efficiency and renewables, adoption of electric vehicles, and better management of farms and forests – to reduce GHG emissions 44 percent below 2006 levels by 2030. The final plan is forthcoming in early 2020.
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Ratepayer benefit analysis | Delaney to Colorado River transmission line, 2012–14
E3 helped Berkshire Hathaway Transmission and Pinnacle West win approval from the board of the California ISO (CAISO) for a new 500 kV transmission project linking Arizona and Southern California. The Delaney to Colorado River (DCR) transmission line was the first economically driven transmission project approved by CAISO: Using CAISO’s Transmission Economic Assessment Methodology, E3 projected ratepayer benefits of $20 million to $30 million per year. E3 worked with CAISO staff to implement the correct network topology and provided information to help ensure that the CAISO’s GridView case included planned infrastructure additions needed for compliance with California’s clean energy policy. E3 also developed an approach for estimating capital cost savings based on the deferral of generation investments allowed by the DCR line; CAISO has adopted this approach in evaluating all future transmission projects.
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Resource assessment, economic benefit analysis, and expert testimony | Sunrise Powerlink, 2007–10
E3 Managing Partner Ren Orans provided expert testimony on behalf of the California ISO in San Diego Gas & Electric Company’s successful application to build the Sunrise Powerlink, a 500 kV transmission line that delivers renewable energy from the Salton Sea and Imperial Valley areas to San Diego. Our analyses demonstrated both the need for the proposed line and a net economic benefit. We performed a resource assessment and created a supply curve, including transmission costs, for each major renewable energy basin in the Western Electric Coordinating Council region. We quantified benefits in generation cost savings from reduced economic congestion across the region, reliability improvement and capacity market savings from increased firm-transfer capability into the San Diego area, and renewable procurement savings from improved access to low-cost renewable resources. Energized in June 2012, Sunrise helped prevent blackouts that summer by allowing replacement power to flow from Arizona when wildfires in the San Diego area shut down local infrastructure.
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Non-wires alternatives in transmission planning | Bonneville Power Administration, 2001–present
In 2001, E3 helped Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) develop a groundbreaking transmission planning process in which we considered non-wires alternatives—energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed generation—alongside conventional investments. BPA was one of the first major transmission providers in North America to use an economic screening for every potential bulk transmission investment. Since then, we have studied non-wires alternatives for other BPA project proposals, including the Hooper Springs line in southeastern Idaho and the 500 kV I-5 corridor reinforcement project in Washington. For the latter, E3 evaluated deferral options, including energy efficiency and demand response, as well as redispatch of generators. BPA is evaluating proposals for implementation of the redispatch option, with potential savings of up to $750 million for its customers.
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Transmission planning support, strategy, and financial analysis | TransCanyon, 2014–present
Since 2014, E3 has supported TransCanyon, a joint venture between Berkshire Hathaway and Pinnacle West, in developing high-voltage transmission in the Western Interconnection. We provide strategic advice and analysis for investment opportunities, help curate and prioritize TransCanyon’s project portfolio, and articulate how electricity sector policies will impact its transmission development business throughout the western U.S. E3 draws on the knowledge base within all our practice areas and our most recent pricing forecasts to provide insights on TransCanyon’s investment outlook.
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Flexibility assessment for wind integration | Portland General Electric, 2014–15
After Oregon set renewable portfolio standard (RPS) goals of 25 percent by 2015 and 50 percent by 2040, Portland General Electric (PGE) turned to E3 to study the flexible generation capacity necessary to meet wind integration needs. Our studies considered the variability, uncertainty, and timing of renewable energy output, and we considered alternative resources such as flexible combined cycle gas turbine plants, frame and aero-derivative combustion turbines, reciprocating engines, and energy storage. Our analysis informed the resource procurement strategy in PGE’s 2016 integrated resource plan. The studies found that PGE’s need for within-hour operational flexibility is not a significant driver of the value or need for new gas resources, even at a 50 percent RPS.
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Least-cost planning for achieving Hawai‘i’s 100 percent RPS | HECO, 2015–present
With more than two decades of experience in Hawai‘i, E3 is now helping the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) plan for the grid transformation needed to reach 100 percent renewable generation by 2045. Our long-term analysis supported development of the utility’s Power System Improvement Plan (PSIP), with modeling centered on individual island plans and interisland transmission. The study develops least-cost expansion plans for each island using a variety of policy cases and fuel price forecasts. E3 used its Renewable Energy Solutions model (RESOLVE) to explore the economic trade-off between renewable curtailment and investments in storage, and to develop least-cost expansion plans consistent with each scenario. We also solicited and incorporated stakeholder input. HECO filed the PSIP, including testimony and support from E3, with the Hawai‘i Public Service Commission in December 2016.
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Investigating a higher RPS for California | LADWP, PG&E, SMUD, SDG&E, and SCE, 2013–14
On behalf of California’s five largest electric utilities, E3 evaluated the challenges, costs, and potential solutions for achieving a 50 percent renewables portfolio standard (RPS) by 2030. Using our Renewable Energy Flexibility Model (REFLEX), we performed detailed operational studies of power system dispatch flexibility constraints under high levels of wind and solar generation. We found that achieving a 50 percent RPS is feasible and that California’s power system can remain reliable as long as renewable resources can be dispatched in response to grid needs. Our study recommended strategies for integrating higher levels of renewables, including greater regional coordination, renewables portfolio diversity, flexible generation capacity, flexible loads, and energy storage. We found that deploying these strategies would reduce the need to curtail renewables, lowering the cost of reaching 50 percent RPS.
Publications
- Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in California: Summary
- Investigating a Higher Renewable Portfolio Standard for California: Full Report
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Procurement and rate design | Lower Valley Energy, 2001–16
E3 has provided procurement and rate-making advice to Wyoming’s Lower Valley Energy (LVE) since 2001. Our long-term procurement plans have carefully addressed LVE’s need to mitigate cost increases due to changes in either market prices of energy or Bonneville Power Administration’s rates. We have also helped LVE assess the merits of different rate structures and compare the value of building generation in its own service territory with the costs of building new transmission facilities to access alternative power sources. Most recently, we provided an independent evaluation of the costs and benefits of a potential merger with a neighboring co-op utility.
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EV charging tariff design | San Diego Gas & Electric, 2014–15
E3 supported San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) in its successful application to the California Public Utilities Commission to launch a pilot program that uses pricing to efficiently integrate electric vehicle (EV) charging in an increasingly renewable grid without contributing to local distribution capacity shortages. SDG&E devised a dynamic vehicle grid integration rate to encourage EV charging at times when high renewable generation depresses wholesale energy prices. The tariff also discourages charging during peak distribution hours. E3 used its EV Grid Impacts Model to show that EV owners that shift their charging in response to the proposed rates would reduce their per-vehicle charging costs to under $600 annually from around $1,400 per year on the current time-of-use rate. The modeling used projected wholesale energy prices in high-renewable scenarios developed using E3’s stochastic production simulation tool, Renewable Energy Flexibility Model (REFLEX). The commission approved a modified version of the proposed program in 2016, and SDG&E is now implementing the pilot.
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Innovative rate design for energy reform | NYSERDA, 2015–16
E3, working with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), developed an innovative retail electric rate design to encourage beneficial customer investment in distributed energy resources (DERs), a leading goal of the New York Public Service Commission’s Reforming the Energy Vision initiative. Our conceptual full-value tariff (FVT) has three components: a customer charge, a size-based network subscription charge, and a time-varying kWh price. The network subscription charge may vary by location to reflect local transmission and distribution costs. We modeled customer response to the FVT to assess its impact on the value proposition of DER technologies, such as energy storage, smart thermostats, and smart vehicle charging. The analysis showed that the FVT can yield savings from measures that are not encouraged under existing rates, while still compensating solar PV and energy-efficiency measures in high-value locations. The FVT conceptual framework underpins the Smart Home Rate demonstrations that New York’s investor-owned utilities filed with the commission in February 2017.
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Residential, commercial, and industrial rate design | BC Hydro
Our work for Vancouver-based BC Hydro began with the design and implementation of an innovative multipart rate structure that included customized baselines for each of its 100 largest industrial customers. In 2008, E3 began assisting the utility with developing and implementing inclining block rate structures to encourage conservation. These ranged from a simple, two-step residential inverted block rate to more-complex baseline structures for commercial customers. Our process included surveying default rates for large general service and residential customers in other markets, analyzing usage characteristics, examining class segmentation options, and ensuring that our proposed rates adhered to BC Hydro’s cost of service principles and regulatory rate-making framework. E3 also developed materials for customer engagement, solicited feedback through moderated customer sessions, and provided expert witness testimony.
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Residential rate design | Hawaiian Electric Company, 2005–present
E3 has supported electric rate design in Hawai‘i since 2005. Currently, E3 is assisting Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) on next-generation retail pricing strategy and rate designs that align with the state’s goal of meeting its 100 percent renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requirements in a way that encourages cost-effective deployment of customer-owned distributed energy resources. HECO first retained E3 to recommend a strategy for developing rates that would encourage conservation to mitigate the impact of high electricity supply costs on its customers. We recommended a three-tier inclining block structure, which is still in place, to minimize increases on small customers and provide conservation incentives to large customers. We also helped get the rate approved, preparing direct testimony and presenting to the utility’s board of directors.
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Evaluating benefits of regional market participation | Multiple utilities, 2014–present
E3 has completed studies for more than 10 utilities on the costs and benefits of participating in the western energy imbalance market (EIM), a regional 5-minute balancing market that became operational in 2014. The EIM aims to lower costs for consumers and assist states in meeting renewable energy goals through more-efficient dispatch, which reduces the need to carry costly reserves and curtail renewable generation. For each study, we ran a production simulation grounded in a detailed representation of the utility’s system. Our work has informed decisions by PacifiCorp, Arizona Public Service, NV Energy, and other utilities to join the EIM, as well as Chelan County Public Utility District’s decision not to participate. Consistent with E3 findings, the California ISO estimated that participants saved more than $85 million in the 20 months after the EIM became operational. Several more studies for utilities are under way.
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- APS Energy Imbalance Market Participation: Economic Benefits Assessment
- NV Energy‐ISO Energy Imbalance Market Economic Assessment
- PacifiCorp-ISO Energy Imbalance Market Benefits
- Benefits Analysis of Puget Sound Energy’s Participation in the ISO Energy Imbalance Market
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Modeling benefits of the Western EIM | WECC, 2011
The Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) engaged E3 to model the benefits of implementing an energy imbalance market (EIM) across the Western Interconnection. Working with WECC staff and many stakeholders, we modeled and compared simulated production costs for a scenario that maintained existing operational arrangements and a second scenario with a consolidated regional balancing market. The analysis found benefits from improved system dispatch, as well as from reductions in operating reserves needed to accommodate wind and solar variability. E3 devised an innovative technique to more accurately estimate the potential impact of the EIM, and pioneered applying “hurdle rates” to calibrate the GridView production simulation base case so that it more accurately reflected bidding and dispatch practices in the West. Since presenting our findings to WECC in 2011, we have developed similar EIM cost-benefit studies for 10 additional utilities.
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Valuation case for potential natural gas power plant acquisition | Large equity holder, 2013
E3 provided independent, comprehensive valuation and due diligence services to a client considering the acquisition of a natural gas power plant in the Pacific Northwest. We examined transmission options and associated costs, energy market revenue projections under various regulatory and environmental scenarios, capacity values, ancillary services revenues, and potential off-takers. Based on our low-valuation case, the buyer made the prudent decision not to acquire this plant.
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Market assessment for wind project acquisition | Large equity holder, 2015
E3 advised a large private equity firm on a potential acquisition of nearly 1 GW of wind generation assets. This project tapped our deep understanding of the western grid, markets, and public policy. We applied our suite of models to project price trajectories for future renewable power purchase agreements, to assess the impact of renewable curtailment on asset values, and to weigh supply and demand for renewable energy credits under potential future regulation. Our analysis helped the company stress-test its internal valuation results and ultimately supported a successful bidding strategy and acquisition.
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Market and financial analysis for $200 million storage investment | Macquarie Capital, 2016
Macquarie Capital turned to E3 for analysis and strategic advice on a potential investment in a 50 MW distributed storage project developed by Advanced Microgrid Solutions (AMS) in the Los Angeles Basin. We performed simulations to verify AMS’s internal modeling of the benefits, costs, and value proposition of behind-the-meter, customer-sited storage assets. To understand potential revenue streams over a 20-year period, E3 analyzed the storage project and the underlying business model, forecasting wholesale and retail electric markets. Our financial analysis for the investors and potential lenders was a key element of the due diligence leading to Macquarie’s $200 million financing arrangement with AMS to take ownership of the project.
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Regulatory strategy for EV infrastructure pilot | Southern California Edison, 2014
E3 assisted Southern California Edison (SCE) in developing the policy case for its successful application to the California Public Utilities Commission to pilot a ratepayer-funded plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure program and education effort. Envisioned as the first phase of a five-year program, the Charge Ready initiative will accelerate the buildout of charging infrastructure by preparing host sites and providing rebates to defray the cost of charging equipment. SCE will recruit hosts in multifamily buildings, workplaces, and disadvantaged communities to ensure that charging is available to a broad spectrum of potential PEV owners. E3 provided supporting analysis, which showed that increasing PEV adoption by 2030 is essential to achieving California’s long-term GHG mitigation goals. SCE also relied on E3’s cost-benefit analysis to show that PEV adoption yields net economic and ratepayer benefits. In January 2016, the CPUC authorized SCE to proceed with the pilot program.
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Litigation and regulatory support for large-scale solar thermal plant development | BrightSource Energy, 2010
The Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System (ISEGS) is the largest commercial solar thermal plant in the world. Built in California’s Mojave Desert by BrightSource Energy, the plant produces a maximum output of almost 400 MW and cost more than $2 billion. E3 supported its development with strategic and regulatory consulting, plant valuation, site and transmission valuation, and other services. BrightSource relied on E3’s reports and testimony to gain site permits and transmission interconnection; utilities relied on our work in signing power purchase agreements. E3 partner Arne Olson’s testimony was key to BrightSource’s successful application to the California Energy Commission (CEC) to construct the ISEGS, as opponents claimed that distributed solar photovoltaic projects would negate the need for it. Olson’s rebuttal reinforced the BrightSource proposal, and the CEC approved the site license in 2009. Construction began in 2010, and Ivanpah came online in February 2014.
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Litigation: pipeline toll restructuring proposal | Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, 2013–14
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) retained E3 to develop regulatory strategy and testify before the Canadian National Energy Board (NEB) in proceedings opposing TransCanada’s proposal to restructure tolls on the Mainline, which transports natural gas from western Canada to eastern markets. TransCanada had proposed restructuring tolls to maintain the line’s economic viability, as throughput declined due to soaring shale gas production in the northeastern U.S. The proposed change shifted fixed costs away from shippers, who were direct customers of the Mainline, toward producers, who were supplying gas to TransCanada’s own distribution network. Our alternative on behalf of CAPP offered a performance-based incentive with some pricing flexibility and balancing accounts that allowed TransCanada a reasonable opportunity to increase throughput and revenues and recover its investment. The NEB ultimately rejected TransCanada’s proposal in favor of CAPP’s, averting a shift of $300 million per year in fixed costs to western Canadian gas producers.
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Litigation: managing electricity procurement risk | KCP&L Greater Missouri Operations Co., 2011–12
E3 supported KCP&L Greater Missouri Operations Company (GMO) in its successful opposition to a $14 million disallowance proposed by the regulatory staff of the Missouri Public Service Commission (MPSC). GMO had purchased NYMEX natural gas futures to hedge against possible wholesale electricity price increases, but the spot and futures prices for natural gas plummeted, resulting in a $14 million loss to GMO. The MPSC staff contended that GMO’s hedge amounted to placing a bet in the stock market and should be disallowed. E3 founding partner C. K. Woo provided direct and surrebuttal testimony to the MPSC, explaining the role of cross-hedging in managing electricity spot-price risk and countering claims that GMO had misused natural gas futures. The MPSC denied its regulatory staff’s imprudence allegation, allowing GMO to fully recover its costs.
Litigation: assessing solar resources value | Oregon PUC staff, 2016–17
The Oregon Public Utilities Commission (OPUC) staff retained E3 to develop a methodology for calculating the value of customer-owned solar photovoltaic resources to ratepayers of investor-owned electric utilities, with the aim of informing regulatory policy. E3 partner Arne Olson served as an expert witness on behalf of the commission staff in a litigated case before the OPUC. Our methodology received broad support from stakeholders, including utilities, environmental groups, solar industry advocates, and consumer advocates. The commission is expected to rule on the proposed methodology in early 2017.
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Using a microgrid for renewables integration | U.C. San Diego, 2011–13
E3 worked closely with the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), to develop innovative business cases for utilizing UCSD’s microgrid to provide system-level renewables integration services and integrate UCSD’s onsite solar resources. The UCSD microgrid consists of a 30 MW combined heat and power system that includes natural gas generators, steam-driven chillers, and thermal storage. E3 benchmarked the UCSD microgrid and developed an optimal dispatch model that determines hourly dispatch scenarios for on-campus resources and cost-effective strategies to provide peak load shifting, grid support, and PV firming. Using the model’s results, E3 proposed new tariff designs and incentives that could motivate UCSD and similar customers to use their distributed resources to integrate variable renewable energy.
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Electricity cost reduction and sustainability support | Los Angeles MTA, 2015–present
We are helping the Los Angeles Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), one of the largest public transit systems in the country, to reduce its electricity costs, and define and achieve its environmental goals. E3’s scope has encompassed guidance on MTA’s energy strategic plan and quantification of sustainability objectives. E3’s effort has included analyzing data for hundreds of monthly electric bills, assessing potential electricity cost savings, and investigating regulatory strategies to realize cost-reducing alternatives.
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Renewable procurement strategy for corporate sustainability | Large data center, 2016
E3 advised a global data center operator on renewable energy procurement in the western U.S. to support achievement of its corporate sustainability goals. We advised the client about factors impacting the long-run cost of the renewable attribute for wind and solar procurement, which is critical to understanding the economics of long-term renewable power purchase agreements. Our 20-year hourly price projections under various market and regulatory scenarios factored in natural gas and carbon price levels, the mix and quantity of renewable technologies on the system, the penetration of rooftop solar PV, and the deployment of renewable integration technologies and strategies. These scenarios supported transaction due diligence and provided a boundary for the ranges of potential renewable energy credit costs.
Energy procurement plan | University of California, 2012–present
The University of California Office of the President (UCOP) retained E3 to develop an energy procurement plan for the six UC campuses served by competitive energy suppliers with total annual usage of over 250 GWh. We developed a model to compare the economic and environmental attributes of proposed purchase contracts against the university’s existing portfolio of contracts and retail electric rates. E3 projected each campus’s loads, operation profiles, and costs for existing combined heat and power facilities, and calculated the cost of new supply portfolios that included on-site generation, off-campus renewable power purchase agreements, and market electricity purchases. Our analysis, which found significant potential to make progress on sustainability goals while managing procurement costs and risk, formed the basis for UCOP’s procurement strategy. E3 continues to advise UCOP and individual campuses on the economics of renewable energy projects and procurement strategies for achieving the UC Sustainability Directive of zero carbon emissions by 2025.
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Electric rate discounts to support electrification | Port of Long Beach, 2007-2015
E3, as electric rate consultant to the Port of Long Beach, the nation’s second-busiest port, led negotiations with Southern California Edison (SCE) to achieve electric rate discounts in recognition of the Port’s electrification program and resulting reductions in emissions of GHGs and criteria pollutants. Negotiations led to the California Public Utilities Commission’s March 2014 approval of SCE’s Rate Schedule ME, which provides electric rate discounts and a program under which SCE installs major electric infrastructure at no cost to the port or its tenants. These measures support critical electrification and environmental improvement projects at the Port, which is expected to quintuple its electric usage by 2030. The projects will improve air quality in the region, and rate discounts are expected to yield more than $300 million in savings over the term of the agreement.
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Economic analysis of market-based carbon reduction | Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2016–2017
E3 worked with the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to evaluate the economic impacts of adopting a carbon market in Oregon, per the directive of the State Legislature (SB 5701). E3 performed a detailed literature review of cap and trade programs and impacts across North America and Europe. We also developed an economic analysis of Oregon’s climate policies, including an estimate of the potential macroeconomic impacts of cap and trade in Oregon. E3 evaluated two categories of climate policies: (1) ‘complementary policies,’ which are the policies that drive GHG emissions reductions outside of the carbon market (e.g. the renewable portfolio standard and energy efficiency programs), and (2) different configurations of a future carbon market. E3 modeled the complementary policies in the energy-accounting model LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system), and the impacts of the carbon market using the IMPLAN macroeconomic model. The results of this study were presented to Oregon stakeholders in January 2017, and the Oregon DEQ presented the study results to the Oregon Legislature for consideration in February 2017.
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New York GHG scenario analysis | NYSERDA, 2016–present
E3 is supporting the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) in developing a detailed GHG analysis to quantify the infrastructure and policy changes necessary to meet state climate and energy goals. We are evaluating the GHG and cost implications of a variety of scenarios that are consistent with New York’s goal of reducing statewide GHG emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. In this work, E3 developed a user-friendly PATHWAYS model on the LEAP software platform for NYSERDA, as well as other modeling tools to support evaluating costs and options to decarbonize the electricity sector.
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Strategic program development and consulting | DOE Technical Assistance to States, 2008–present
E3 has been a resource to the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Technical Assistance to States program through Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory since 2008. Our projects help state governments better understand how to implement energy efficiency programs and how to make them cost-effective. E3 has advised utility commissioners and senior policy staff in Pennsylvania, Georgia, South Dakota, Illinois, Arizona, and other states on major aspects of their program designs. We provide accurate information, guidance, and background based on our knowledge of various states’ decisions, and share our expertise in standard industry practice.
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Decarbonizing pipeline gas to help meet GHG reduction goals | SoCalGas, 2014–15
E3 worked with the Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) to evaluate the potential of decarbonized pipeline gas fuels and the existing pipeline infrastructure to help meet California’s long-term climate goals. “Decarbonized pipeline gas” refers to gaseous fuels—including biogas—with a net-zero or very low GHG impact. E3 used its PATHWAYS model to evaluate two scenarios, one with heavy electrification of buildings and vehicles and one with a mix of electrification and decarbonized pipeline gas. Both were found capable of meeting the state’s 2050 climate goals with comparable total costs within the ranges of uncertainty that we evaluated. The results of the study suggest that the use of decarbonized gas distributed through the state’s existing pipeline network would complement a low-carbon electrification strategy. SoCalGas has used the results of this study to inform its energy and climate policy positions in California.
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California’s 2017 Climate Change Scoping Plan | CARB, 2016–2017
E3 supported the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in developing an updated “Scoping Plan” strategy for achieving California’s 2030 greenhouse gas target. California Senate Bill 32 (Pavley, 2016) requires the state to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions 40% below 1990 levels by 2030. E3’s analysis evaluated the GHG and cost implications of different 2030 scenarios that are consistent with the state’s current policies and GHG target. For this project, E3 updated the California PATHWAYS model to reflect scenarios and input assumptions requested by the CARB. The model results were translated into inputs to a macroeconomic model (REMI) in analysis performed by the CARB to evaluate impacts to statewide economic growth and jobs. E3’s study results were presented in public stakeholder workshops and are reflected in the final Scoping Plan published in November 2017.
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Feasibility and cost of potential 2030 GHG reduction goals | CARB, CEC, CPUC, CAISO, 2014
The California Air Resources Board, California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, California ISO, and governor’s office engaged E3 to evaluate the feasibility and cost of potential 2030 GHG targets. We focused on emission reduction strategies through 2030, with an eye toward meeting the state’s 2050 GHG reduction goal. Using our PATHWAYS model, we developed several scenarios that varied the mix of low-carbon technologies and the timing of deployment. PATHWAYS is a stock-and-flow model that encompasses the entire state economy with detailed representations of the building, industrial, transportation, and electricity sectors. E3 team members briefed Gov. Jerry Brown and members of the legislature on the results. Our work informed the governor’s Executive Order B-30-15, which calls for a 40 percent reduction in statewide GHG emissions by 2030 relative to 1990 levels. California agencies are using our results in ongoing implementation analysis of the state’s climate goals.
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Transportation electrification assessment | CalETC, 2014–16
E3 analyzed the grid impacts of charging light-, medium-, and heavy-duty electric vehicles (EVs) for the California Electric Transportation Coalition (CalETC), a consortium of automakers and utilities. To quantify the distribution system upgrades needed to accommodate residential charging of light-duty EVs, we mapped vehicle registration data with utility distribution system and load data for more than 81,000 circuits and feeders and 2,200 substations; we then modeled costs under different rate and charging scenarios.
Even with clustered EV adoption, distribution impacts were modest, and we found that managed charging reduced distribution upgrade costs by 60 percent. For most technologies studied, we showed that EV adoption can actually reduce rates for utility customers while providing net economic, environmental, and societal benefits for California. CalETC’s member utilities used our study to educate regulators and stakeholders about the benefits of EV adoption prior to seeking authorization to invest ratepayer funds in charging infrastructure and customer outreach.
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Net energy metering tariff evaluation tool | CPUC, 2015
E3 created a public tool for the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to inform the development of a successor to existing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs for eligible customer-sited renewable generators. This tool helped the CPUC and stakeholders balance legislative directives to design tariffs that maintain sustainable growth of such generation and ensure that total benefits to customers are approximately equal to total costs.
The tool lets users evaluate different rate designs, simulating their impact on adoption of customer-sited PV and on bills for all ratepayers, while accounting for feedback effects on future rates and life-cycle cost-effectiveness. Providing a common model to all parties allowed the CPUC and stakeholders to focus on fundamental differences in proposals and scenarios, rather than on disagreements and confusion over model differences.
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Time-dependent valuation for building codes | CEC, 1999–present
E3 supports the California Energy Commission (CEC) in implementing the state building energy code by maintaining the economic framework for energy standard requirements and allowed trade-offs for new construction. We have worked with the CEC and its stakeholders since 1999 to continually refine a time-dependent valuation (TDV) methodology, and we are now under contract to support the 2025 Title 24 Update. The TDV methodology uses a 30-year forecast of the social cost of energy that varies hourly and by location to account for shifts in system peaks over time, and regional variations in climate and grid utilization. . E3’s initial study investigated a shift to a value-based standard that accounts for the time and geographic differences in energy costs seen in California energy prices, natural gas and propane markets, as well as in the costs of electric utility distribution and transmission systems. TDV was initially adopted in 2005, and E3 supported the updates in 2008, 2013, 2016, 2019, and 2022.
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Distributed resources planning tool development | Con Edison, 2014
E3 built on a collaboration with Con Edison going back to 2000 to develop an integrated demand-side management (IDSM) model that expands the utility’s distribution planning capabilities. Using detailed data on customer populations, the tool assesses market potential for dispatchable distributed energy resources (DERs) within local electric networks, enabling Con Edison to identify lower-cost ways to alleviate local distribution constraints.
Con Edison has integrated the IDSM tool into its distribution planning practices and is using it to help realize the New York State Public Service Commission’s Reforming the Energy Vision initiative. The E3 team continues to refine and enhance the tool, which won the 2014 Utility Analytics Institute Innovation Award.
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Avoided Cost Model for evaluating DER programs | CPUC, 2004–present
Since 2004, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) has used E3’s Avoided Cost Model (ACM) to estimate the benefits of energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage, and other distributed energy resources (DERs). The ACM has evolved along with energy markets and policy in the West, and it currently projects avoided costs for energy, losses, generation capacity, ancillary services, subtransmission and distribution capacity, renewable portfolio standard purchases, carbon allowances, and other air permit costs. The 30-year hourly forecast is differentiated across California’s 16 climate zones. Since 2019, E3 has provided ongoing support to refine the CPUC’s cost-effectiveness framework for distributed energy resources, expanding the applications of the Avoided Cost Calculator to include the cost-effectiveness of California’s entire DER portfolio.
The CPUC approves over $1 billion in annual funding for DERs using these avoided costs for its cost-effectiveness tests. The ACM is suitable for stakeholder processes and contentious regulatory proceedings because it uses robust methods and publicly available input data. E3 also allows the download of the ACM so that all stakeholders can audit any of the calculations.
