E3 provided analysis in support of the Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities (DPU) December 2023 Order in the 20-80 “Future of gas” proceeding, which sets a new regulatory framework for the future of natural gas distribution in support of the Commonwealth’s climate goals. The DPU recommended the E3 team’s analysis in support of the 20-80 proceeding, writing:

“The Department commends the LDCs and their Consultants for their comprehensive effort in estimating the costs and economy-wide GHG emissions reductions involved in transitioning the natural gas system. The Department fully recognizes the difficulty in assessing these multidimensional challenges and expresses its appreciation for the comprehensive Pathways Report.”

E3 developed and analyzed eight decarbonization pathways and six regulatory design recommendations as part of a multi-year engagement examining the role of local gas distribution companies (LDCs) in Massachusetts in achieving net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Commonwealth by 2050. In addition to the Decarbonization Pathways Study, which was developed as part of the Commonwealth’s 20-80 proceeding, E3 assisted each of the LDCs in their filing of a Net Zero Enablement Plan that included LDC-specific recommendations and plans to support the Commonwealth’s decarbonization goals. This project also involved a broad modeling framework designed by E3 as well as an extensive stakeholder process aimed at gauging stakeholder perspectives on gas decarbonization.

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E3 worked with the World Resources Institute (WRI) to develop four scenarios of increasing ambition to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across all sectors of the United States economy using E3’s US PATHWAYS and RESOLVE models. E3 collaborated with WRI to develop robust scenario definitions, collect publicly available data and assumptions, and create interactive spreadsheet results. The goal of the study was to understand the effect of high-impact federal policies on achieving 50% emissions reduction by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050. The analysis demonstrates the importance of key near-term building blocks, including: 1) aligning economics for customers and companies to adopt clean energy technologies; 2) aligning policy and institutions to remove barriers to technology deployment; 3) increasing consumer awareness and education to unlock higher levels of adoption; and 4) creating a transition plan for fossil fuel jobs to ensure a smooth transition.

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E3 analyzed regional 2050 decarbonization scenarios for the Pacific Northwest on behalf of NW Natural, a gas distribution business in Oregon and Southwest Washington. Unlike prior studies, E3’s focused on space heating technologies: both how they perform in cold temperatures and affect the costs of serving heating loads. E3 analyzed four scenarios — two maintaining direct use of gas in buildings, and two assuming large-scale building electrification — and found similar 2050 costs among the gas and cold-climate electric heat pump scenarios, and higher costs in the standard electric heat pump scenario. Gas scenarios require three things beyond the decarbonization strategies common to all scenarios: reducing the carbon intensity of natural gas by blending up to 30 percent carbon-neutral renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen; high building energy efficiency; and deeper GHG reductions in non-building sector emissions. Electrification scenarios require rapid consumer adoption of electric heating technologies, especially cold-climate heat pumps, and significant electricity sector investments to address winter peak demand from electric space heating.

Publications

• Pacific Northwest Pathways to 2050