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GHG Modeling
The California Public Utility Commission (CPUC) selected a team led by Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3) to model the electricity sector’s compliance with AB32, California’s Global Warming Solutions Act. This law requires a reduction in statewide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

E3’s modeling work was initially completed in May 2008 and provided the CPUC and California Energy Commission (CEC) with critical information on how different policies and initiatives will achieve emission reduction savings in the electricity and natural gas sectors and affect utility costs and consumers’ electricity bills. This information was used by the CPUC and CEC to advise the California Air Resource Board (CARB) on setting and implementing GHG standards for the electricity sector in the Joint Final Opinion on GHG Regulatory Strategies D.08-10-037.

In October 2009, a revised version of the GHG Calculator (version 3) was released, along with a final report describing the findings and methodology applied in the GHG Calculator. In November 2009, version 3b of the GHG Calculator was released with minor changes.  In October 2010, version 3c of the GHG Calculator was released, with a change to the treatment of CHP.  These changes are described in the Addendum below.

CPUC GHG Calculator Updated Report and Revised Model
CPUC GHG Revised Report version 3b Update(pdf) (10/7/10)
GHG Calculator Appendix A and B (unchanged from version 3b(pdf) (3/11/10)
GHG Calculator version 3c (xls, 6MB) (10/7/10)
GHG Calculator Addendum-CHP changes (pdf) (10/7/10)

CPUC GHG Calculator Revised Report and Model: Version 3b
CPUC GHG Revised Report version 3b (pdf) (3/11/10)
GHG Calculator version 3b Appendix A and B (pdf) (3/11/10)
GHG Calculator version 3b (xls, 6MB) (3/11/10)

Revised Report version 3b Redlined Versions
Redlined version: CPUC GHG Revised Report version 3b (pdf) (3/11/10)
Redlined version: GHG Calculator version 3b Appendix A and B (pdf) (3/11/10)

Document Archive +

CPUC GHG Calculator Revised Report and Model: Version 3b
CPUC GHG Revised Report version 3b (pdf)

CPUC GHG Final Report and Model
CPUC GHG Final Report (593 KB) (10/28/09)
GHG Calculator Appendix A and B(10/28/09)
GHG Calculator version 3.zip (6 MB) (11/13/09)

Final Opinion on GHG Regulatory Strategies D08_10_037
Final opinion on GHG Regulatory Strategies D08_10_037
Attachment A_Parties that have filed comments in Phase 2 of R06_04_009 (10/22/08)
Attachment B_Figures in Final opinion of GHG Regulatory Strategies (10/22/08)

October 2009 GHG Calculator v. 3
GHG Calculator version 3.zip (6 MB) (11/11/2009)

May 2008 Results and GHG Calculator v2b
Final results slides (revised from May 6th presentation) (PDF) (5/13/08)
GHG Calculator v2b (ZIP 5.7MB) (5/13/08)

May 6th Presentation and GHG Calculator v2.a
Slides for May 6th presentation (PDF) (5/6/08)
GHG Calculator v2.a (ZIP 5.6MB) (5/6/08)

Updated Assignment of Generators to LSEs
Instructions and Generation Assignment Table (XLS) (4/23/08)

Slides for April 22nd CPUC workshop
Slides for Allocation Scenarios, April 22nd (PDF) (4/22/08)

Slides for April 21st CPUC workshop (10 am to 12:30 pm)
Slides for April 21st workshop (PDF) (4/21/08)

Stage 2 GHG Modeling Approach
Stage 2 GHG Modeling approach (doc) (4/2/08)

Materials for April 1st conference call on CHP Issues
PowerPoint presentation materials (PPT) (3/27/08)
Spreadsheet with penetration, cost, and performance assumptions (XLS) (3/27/08)

CHP suggested approach from EPUC/CAC
EPUC / CAC cost and performance assumptions (XLS) (3/27/08)
EPUC / CAC existing CHP generation data (DOC) (3/27/08)

Stage 1 GHG Calculator Changes and Response to Stakeholder Comments on Stage 1 Issues
holder Comments on Stage 1 Issues
Stage 1 GHG calculator changes (PDF) (2/29/08)

Key Dates

September 21, 2007: Kick-off Meeting at the CPUC on GHG Modeling
Presentation Slides (PDF)

November 1 - 12, 2007: GHG modeling methodology documentation posted to website

November 14, 2007: Stage I GHG Modeling Worskhop at the CPUC
Presentation Slides (PDF)

November 16, 2007: Corrections of GHG modeling methodology documentation and update to GHG Calculator

‘Roadmap’ to the Supporting Documentation
The following set of documents has been developed to describe the methodology, document the input assumptions, and provide initial results of the analysis. The GHG Calculator and methodology will continue to be refined and improved upon through input from the stakeholder process associated with the CPUC Greenhouse Gas Docket R. 06-04-009.

Note: The date in parenthesis indicates when the document was last updated on the website.

Update of Stage 1 Documentation
Corrections to Stage 1 documentation (word doc) (11/16/07)
GHG Calculator - business-as-usual case v2 (excel file) (11/16/07)
Summary of business-as-usual case results v2 (word doc) (11/16/07)
GHG Calculator - aggressvie policy case v2 (excel file) (11/16/07)
Summary of aggressive policy case results v2 (word doc) (11/16/07)
Generation costs (word doc) (11/16/07)
Transmission costs (excel file) (11/16/07)

Generator Data for Review
Generator Data and Generator Ownership/Contract Assignments to LSE (excel file)

Stage 1 Documentation Contents
The documents are organized into five ‘sections’: modeling methodology, inputs, reference case and target case results, model benchmarking, and the GHG calculator.  The individual document format will allow parties to download and comment on the specific input or data that they would like to comment on without the whole analysis. For convenience, all of the documents have been compiled into a single PDF document and a single ZIP folder

1. Documentation Overview (11/7/07)

Modeling Methodology for Reference Case and Target Cases
2. Methodology summary for 2020 cases(11/1/07)
3. 2008 PLEXOS data sources (11/12/07)
4. Assigning generation to LSEs (11/7/07)
5. Load-resource balance methodology (11/1/07)
6. Calculation of total cost of electricity in the GHG model (11/1/07)

Inputs to E3 Base Case and Target Cases
General input assumptions
7. Reference case policy assumptions (11/1/07)
8. Financing and tax incentive assumptions for new resources (11/13/07)
9. Fuel price forecasts for the WECC (11/1/07)
10. Assumptions regarding 2020 RPS requirements in the WECC (11/1/07)

Load forecast
11. CA LSE and WECC load and energy forecasts (11/1/07)

Demand-side resources and costs
12. Energy efficiency supply curves (11/7/07)
13. CSI forecast (11/5/07)
14. Demand Response forecast (11/1/07)

New generation resources and costs
16. Wind resources, cost, and performance (11/7/07)
17. Biomass resources, cost and performance (11/1/07)
18. Geothermal resources, cost and performance (11/1/07)
19. Concentrating solar power (CSP) resources, cost and performance (11/1/07)
20. Small and large hydro resources, cost and performance (11/1/07)
21. Natural gas CCGT cost and performance (11/7/07)
22. Natural gas CT cost and performance (11/1/07)
23. New conventional coal costs and performance (11/1/07)
24. New coal IGCC w/ & w/out CCS costs and performance (11/1/07)
25. New nuclear generation costs and performance (11/1/07)

All-in resource costs by zone
26. Renewable energy supply curves (11/7/07)
27. Transmission costs (11/1/07)
28. Wind integration costs(11/1/07)
29. Firming Costs (11/1/07)
30. New generation cost summary (11/7/07)
31. Resource ranking and selection (11/7/07)
32. California Zones (11/13/07)

Reference Case and Target Case Results
33. Progress note (11/7/07)
34. Business as usual results (11/7/07)
35. Aggressive policy results (11/7/07)

Model Benchmarking
36. Electricity sector emissions benchmarks (11/7/07)
37. Natural gas sector emissions benchmarks (11/7/07)
38. 2008 benchmarking (Avail. tba)
39. 2020 benchmarking (Avail. tba)

GHG Calculator
40. Brief calculator description (11/7/07)
41. GHG calculator spreadsheets: Calculator aggressive case ; Calculator BAU case (11/7/07)

Materials
CPUC RFP statement of work (from “Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies and Load-Based Cap Options in the California Electricity Sector” RFP issued March 21st, 2007)